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May 09 2008
Fascinating Prediction ~ ARM has MID design wins until 2014?
Shared by Josh Bancroft
Jeff knows what he's talking about here. Some very good insights, and not just because he's my friend. :-)
EE Times published an article yesterday explaining that ARM will have the majority of MID sales until 2014. Shockingly, I'm not too worried that anyone working on Atom or MID development is going to abandon ship.
First, ...2014? I'd love to know what is going to be happening by the end of this year, let alone six years out. That's an Internet Eternity, especially in this product area. How old is your cellphone, smartphone, or favorite tech toy? Would you have really envisioned how you use it two years ago? Four?
Second, there are too many wild cards in the cast of characters. Apple, Google, Asus, Microsoft, and even... what's their name again... oh yeah, Intel, might have a plan or two up their sleeve in this time frame, and any one of them could send things scrambling in a new direction. Apple wrenched the phone world sideways with the iPhone, and Asus launched a whole new market with the Eee PC. Google has Android cooking and never fails to keep developers amused with new forays, and good ol' Microsoft may be sometimes slow to the party, but they always show up with an entourage.
Third, the article claims the "proven advantages of the ARM ecosystem in mobile devices will eventually outweigh those of the Intel platform." I've talked to a lot of people inside and outside Intel who develop for these devices, and the fragmentation of the existing ecosystems drives many of them nuts. One of the great things about moblin is that is provides an compliance base across devices so you can reduce testing and reach more target systems, even running on multiple form factors like MIDs and netbooks.
ARM has an impressive part of the market right now in MID and ultra mobile devices without a doubt. The iPhone alone tips the balance quite nicely. I just don't see how anyone watching this industry, and who has looked at Atom and Intel's plans for it, could do anything but chuckle at any six-year prediction around MIDs other than it is going to be one crazy ride.
